How a domino-effect triggers a global war

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Through the United States’ dubious decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, a domino tile is added to the already fragile international order.

The System – consisting of interacting societies (states) and communities, and their interactions with the environment on which they depend – increasingly resembles a global network of connected ‘critical issues’; issues between states and/or between communities that are on the verge of escalating into open conflict; war in the case of issues between states.

Because of the connection – linkage – between issues (because for example, the issues involve the same rival states), the escalation of a particular critical issue into war, can trigger a connected critical issue to also develop into open conflict.

Depending on the structure of the network of connected critical issues, a single incident can cause a chain-reaction, and cause a systemic  – that is a global – war.

The moment the network of critical issues spans the System, the System is in a critical condition and is highly susceptible for a systemic war. In case the System is critical, a single – even small – incident can trigger a massive response, a systemic war.

The start of the First World War (1914-1918) – the third systemic war – shows how this mechanism works: The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo 28 June 1914 – a relatively ‘small’ incident – produced a systemic response.

It is also possible to compare the network of critical issues with ‘connected’ domino tiles, in which a domino tile represents a critical issue: When a domino tile falls, it sets in motion a chain reaction.

My research shows, that the System produces war cycles, which have a typical (similar) life cycle: Initially, following the implementation of a ‘new’ international order, the System is still able to regulate tensions and to solve issues between states. However, at a certain point in time – when the tipping point of the international order (relatively stable period) is reached – the capacity of the international order to regulate tensions and solve issues becomes problematic: instead of tensions being released and issues being solved, they accumulate in the System. This ‘regime’, I refer to as the high connectivity regime of the relatively stable period (international order).

During the period 1495-1945, the System (with Europe as its dominant core) produced four accelerating war cycles, that show this typical behavior.

At present, data-analysis shows that since 2011, the System is in the high connectivity regime of the fifth – first global (1945-….) – war cycle. The System is now developing a network of critical issues, which increasingly spans the (now global) System.

Criticality of the System – the collapse of the current international order (United Nations) is just a matter of time.

The United States’ latest misguided decision – to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital – adds more tensions and another domino tile to the already fragile System. A domino effect has become more likely. In the next article, I will discuss this issue in more detail.

 

 

 

A (functioning) society is a dynamical system that has achieved a temporary equilibrium, but is constantly challenged

A society qualifies as a living system (a subject/perspective I will discuss in more detail in the future), and consists of four closely related, complementary and interacting subsystems or domains (that can be compared at a more abstract level with ‘organs’).

These four subsystems are responsible for fulfilling the basic requirements of societies and its ‘parts’ (like individual humans and communities) to ensure their survival.

basic-human-needs

Human needs – basic requirements – are not ‘static’ and evolve. The evolution of basic needs also contributes to the dynamics of the System. However, despite the evolution of human needs, basically they stay the same. We need wifi for our social media; a need closely related to identity and sense-making.

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Politicians must (urgently) focus on reorganizing the international order through consultation, not war.

dominos

Politicians – we – must urgently focus on reorganizing the international order through consultation, not war. Currently tensions rise and issues accumulate in the System; it is just a matter of time before a small incident triggers a massive response of the System. 

During the period 1495-1945, the System produced four accelerating and highly consistent war cycles. Certain key-properties of these war cycles developed very consistently, as I show and explain in my research.

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Not a warm homecoming: Can Trump restrain himself?

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The security dilemma at display.

President Trump of the United States has caused enormous damage to American interests: Trump has systematically undermined his (domestic) political reputation and the already fragile international order. His positive achievements are meagre; a fact his bragging cannot disguise.

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