The dynamics in the International System are to a significant degree deterministic

The study shows that the war dynamics of the System are to a significant degree deterministic in nature, and obey mathematical ‘laws’.



This figure depicts the finite-time singularity dynamic that was accompanied by four accelerating war cycles (1495-1945) as a ‘war trap’: During its unfolding, the deterministic nature of its dynamics increasingly restricted our ‘contingent latitude’.

During the period 1495-1945, the System produced four accelerating war cycles; each cycle consisting of a relatively stable period – when an international order was in place – followed by a systemic war, when the international order was ‘upgraded’ to a next level of organisation to ensure lower tension levels in the System.

The war dynamics constituted a finite-time singularity dynamic that was accompanied by four accelerating war cycles.

The frequency of systemic wars, as well as their respective severities increased very regularly. In 1939, when the core of the anarchistic System (‘Europe’) reached the critical connectivity threshold (the singularity in finite-time), the core collapsed.

The collapse of the core resulted in a phase transition of the System; by means of the fourth systemic war (the Second World War, 1939-1945) simultaneously non-anarchistic structures were imposed in Europe by the United States and the Soviet Union, and a first global international order (the United Nations) was implemented at a global scale of the System.

Because of the increasing frequency and severities of successive systemic wars, systemic wars increasingly dominated the dynamics of the System. These wars could not be avoided, and the finite-time singularity in fact constituted a war trap.

Because of the impact of these highly deterministic dynamics our ‘contingent latitude‘ – our ability to make ‘free choices’ – became increasingly restricted: Systemic wars were forced on the System; escape was not possible.