Patterns in war dynamics, Part VII. Building blocks for a new theory (4): Expansion

(4) The process of integration and expansion accelerated at the same rates. As mentioned above, it is possible to distinguish nine non-systemic wars that are closely related to the expansion of the core (Europe) to the non-core of the System and to autonomous non-core war dynamics.

pnas-fig-8

Figure 8: The process of expansion of the core (Europe) to the non-core of the System, eventually resulting in their merging (1941).

I assume that the process of integration and expansion were closely related and followed the same ‘logic’. This assumption seems to be confirmed by data analysis.

Four types of expansion wars can be distinguished; each type of expansion war defines a distinct phase in the process of expansion (see table 4 and Fig. 8).

Expansion of the System (1495-1945)

(Based on Levy’s dataset)

 

Phase

Dynamic Start

War that marks start phase (No’s refer to Levy)

 

I

Core-expansion to non-core

1812

War of 1812 (88), 1812-1814

II

Non-core involvement in core (European) affairs

1917

US involvement in the First World War (107), 1914-1918

III

Autonomous non-core Great Power war dynamics

1931

Manchurian War (109), 1931-1933

IV

Merging of core and non-core; globalization of the System

1941

US involvement in Second World War (113), 1941-1945, triggered by Germany’s declaration of war on the US

Table 4: This table presents the four expansion wars that mark distinct phases in the process of expansion through war. I consider the ‘War of the American Revolution’ (1778-1884, no. 81 Levy) to be an exception: I consider this war to be a ‘combination’ of an integration and expansion war. If this war (1778) is considered the start of phase I, the conclusions are unchanged.

I assume that 1941 marks the ‘globalization point’ of the System, when the war dynamics of the core and non-core of the System merged. The German decision to declare war on the United States on December 10, 1941 (in support of Japan, who had attacked Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941) was instrumental in the final step of the expansion process.

By doing so, the issue and war clusters in Europe and Asia became connected. Because of the German decision, the United States became directly involved in both ‘theatres of war’ (Asia and Europe).

I consider 1941 to be the ‘globalization point’ of the System – the critical time of the process of expansion when the core and non-core merged. In other words, 1941 marks the end of the process of expansion of the core (Europe) to the non-core of the System.

The table below (Table 5) lists the durations of the phases that can be distinguished in the process of integration and expansion of the System by respectively applying the timing of the collapse of the core of the System (1939) – the critical time of the integration process – and the timing of the merging of core and non-core (1941).

Duration of integration and expansion phases

 

 

Integration

T(c) – t, T(c) = 1939

Expansion

T(c) – t, T(c) = 1941

I

444 (1939-1495)

129 (1941-1812)

II

291 (1939-1648)

24 (1941-1917)

III

124 (1939-1815)

10 (1941-1931)

IV

21(1939-1918)

 

Table 5: Duration of the respective phases of the process of integration of the core and expansion of the core to the non-core of the System.

When the duration of the phases of both processes are shown in a logarithmic plot, their synchronization becomes evident. Both processes – the process of integration of the core through the implementation of successive international orders (through systemic wars) and the process of expansion of the core to the non-core – accelerated at approximately the same rate. The correlation coefficient of the first three phases of both processes is 0.96 (if ‘The War of the American Revolution’ is considered the start point of phase I, the correlation coefficient is 0.95).

Furthermore, analysis reveals that the proportion of expansion wars of the total number of non-systemic wars the System produced during the four respective cycles of the finite-time singularity (0/45, 1/34, 4/21 and 4/6) increased exponentially with R2 = 0.99. The increasing proportion of expansion wars also points to the finalization of the process of integration of the System’s core.

pnas-fig-9

Figure 9: Acceleration and synchronization of the process of integration and expansion.

To be continued.