Patterns in war dynamics, Part VIII. Building blocks for a new theory (5): Regulation through war

(5) The finite-time singularity dynamic accompanied by four accelerating cycles was a self-reinforcing dynamic that regulated the System during the period 1495-1945. It can be argued that the finite-time singularity dynamic – by producing relatively stable periods that allowed for the establishment of international orders and by regularly updating these orders – provided opportunities for further (population) growth.

pnas-fig-10

Figure 10: This figure shows the relationship between population growth and the unfolding of the finite-time singularity dynamic (1495-1945) that I assume to exist.

The (population) growth that was enabled then further contributed to the ‘crystallization’ of units into states and to the build-up of tensions in the System, which were used again to upgrade the order of the System through systemic war.

I argue that the finite-time singularity dynamic that was accompanied by four accelerating war cycles can be considered a self-reinforcing mechanism: population growth resulted in tensions that powered the unfolding of the finite-time singularity, which then enabled further population growth, etc.

I argue that the System was in fact regulated by means of a finite-time singularity dynamic: it regulated – optimized – its organization and its population size. Successive international orders that were implemented through systemic wars and the simultaneous crystallization of approximately 300 diverse ‘units’ into 25 standardized state-structures constituted a co-evolutionary process that was driven – powered – by population growth.

The research suggests that, driven by the need of individual humans to fulfill a number of basic requirements to ensure their survival, the organization of the anarchistic system and population size were optimized through a self-organized finite-time singularity dynamic accompanied by four accelerating war cycles driven by collective ‘individual’ behavior. When the severities of successive cycles are related to the size of the population in Europe, the analysis reveals that the severities of successive cycles were more or less constant, approximately 2.4% of the European population (except for the second cycle, 3.9%, as discussed).

To be continued.