We are ignorant and arrogant: We will pay the price

Free will

Free will: Are you sure? (Illustration: Source)

The war dynamics and development of the System – including the unfolding of the finite-time singularity dynamic, that was accompanied by four accelerating war cycles (1495-1945) – are powered by tensions (= energy) that are produced in anarchistic systems because of the intrinsic incompatibility between connectivity and anarchy. The drivers are population growth and rivalries between states.

These ‘energy dynamics’ of the System obey simple ‘energy laws’ (related to the second law of thermodynamics): “Free energy in a system will be put to use to implement a ‘new’ order that allows for a lower energy state of the system in question”.

Tensions can be considered free energy; an upgraded international law ensures a lower energy state of the System, at least for the time being.

These deterministic laws – in combination with certain effects (like the network effect, that produces a tipping point – determine and shape the war dynamics of the System, which are (for that reason) deterministic in nature (see my research).

It shows our arrogance that we always assumed – and still assume – that physical laws would not apply to our social system and its dynamics. We are ‘in control’ was the assumption. However, our free will is much more limited, and as far as it exists, we do not use it responsible.

These deterministic laws ‘determine’ when accumulated tensions (energy) must and will be released and will be put to use to implement ‘new’ orders that allow for a lower energy state of the System. These laws explain the highly consistent and regular patterns that can be observed in the war dynamics of the System.

We have never realized – and now have difficulty to accept – that our social dynamics are shaped by these deterministic ‘underlying’ energy dynamics.

The tensions we produce in the System, shape social issues that unfold and develop within the framework the energy laws ‘provide’ – grant – us. These social issues have their own dynamics, and momentum.


We learned – and have to – live with gravity. Collapse is the alternative (Source)

What we do with these tensions – what we fight for – is our decision, when we fight, for how long, etc. is however determined by the underlying deterministic laws.

A third and fourth systemic war (for example), would have happened anyway, what we ‘made of it’ and who would be the protagonists was up to us. The war dynamics are forced on the System, but our leaders – Napoleon, Hitler, but also Churchill and Roosevelt, Trump, May and Erdogan, etc. – are our choices.

This also means that a next systemic war – when it starts, duration, etc. – is a product of the underlying deterministic laws and mechanisms and ‘unavoidable’ if we do not recognise and better understand the workings of the System, and take appropriate action.


Gravity is used in exploration of space to ‘direct’ spacecrafts on their missions (Source).

Trump – to name an example – is a product of the high-tension levels in the United States and in the System. The present high tensions levels, are a product of the high-connectivity regime of a new war cycle we are now in. At this stage tensions and issues accumulate in the system, and cannot be released and solved. The System is now charging for a next critical period (systemic war).

Humans and societies have difficulty dealing with these tensions, and in efforts to reduce these tensions, look for (1) radical solutions (because moderate solutions did not work, and populist politicians will explain that these moderate solutions of the ‘establishment’, are in fact the cause of the deplorable situation we are now in), and (2) look for ‘enemies’ that allow these tensions to crystallise; at least the tensions get a ‘face’, and can be focused. Minorities typically are used for this purpose.

Current leaders – products of the dynamics of the System, and social developments – determine how the tensions are used and shaped, for what social issues or international controversies. Their moral values are crucial, and define the next fight. Although Trump is a product of high tensions, he – and the American society/state – are still responsible how these tensions are put to use.

The energy laws determine that we will fight, but do not determine the outcome of the fight; the values that will underpin a next international order in case of a next systemic war for example.

As long as the requirements of the ‘energy laws’ are met, ‘anything’ – fascism, Trumpism, communism, liberal-democracy – will do.

We must better understand our limitations – including our limited understanding if the System’s dynamics – and put our free will to better use.