In the previous article, I discussed the geopolitical position of the United States and its relative advantages. The United States use buffers to keep Russia and China in check; these buffers also form a ‘first (physical) line of defence‘.
However, these buffers now show serious cracks, that increasingly undermine their effectiveness.
As I discussed, my research shows that international orders have a typical life-cycle, and that it is only a matter of time before an international order requires an upgrade. Until now, upgraded international orders were in all cases (four times) implemented by means of systemic wars. Population growth and rivalries between states (especially between Great Powers) ‘drive‘ the System’s development.
The current international order – the first global international order (the United Nations) – was implemented by means of the fourth systemic war (the Second World War, 1939-1945). Analysis of war data – but also of the current volatile (political) dynamics – suggest that the current international order is about to become critical.
During the current phase, tensions and unsolved issues can no longer adequately be released and instead accumulate in the System. Consequently, the tension levels further increase.
These tensions put pressure on the ‘fabric‘ of the System, and cause increasing instability. The Pax Americana – the current international order – becomes increasingly dysfunctional. See above figure.