The United States and the international order are cracking under pressure

Charlottesville

The United States’ internal destabilization and the current dire condition of the System are closely related. 

The United States’s moral decline and ‘moral destabilization’ are closely related to the overall destabilization of the (international) System, of which the United States is the most central component.

The United States internal troubles are not without consequence for the stability of the System, how issues will be ‘shaped’ and eventually play out.

Presently – since 2011 – the international order is in its high connectivity regime, when tensions and issues accumulate in the System; since 2011 a network-effect hinders the adequate release of tensions and the resolution of issues. The accumulation of tensions and issues continues until the System reaches a critical point and produces a systemic war.

The United States is not able to effectively handle the current high tensions levels in the System and in the United States itself, and stay its course. The United States are cracking under pressure. Its aggressive actions towards other states are related to its internal troubles, and vice versa.

During systemic wars the accumulated tensions – energy – are used to design and implement an upgraded international order, that again provides a period of relative stability.

During systemic wars, the issues that have accumulated serve as trigger and crystallization points. Issues that are now accumulating include: North-Korea’s ambitions and provocations, Taiwan’s status, Iran’s ambitions, religious and political intolerance, Ukraine, Syria, etc. etc. These issues become increasingly linked.

The new order that is designed and implemented during a systemic war – including during a next systemic war – is about the new status hierarchy of states in the System (its organization), the privileges they acquire, and also about the rule-sets that will underpin the upgraded order.

Systemic wars are about values that will prevail, and thus about the long-term direction of development of the System: Will religious and political intolerance prevail or will democracy get a new impuls?

The current developments and ideas in the United States – its dysfunctional political system, the fact that basic values are increasingly disputed, America First, the fact that the United States is no longer committed to a rules-based system, etc. – are very disturbing, given its military and economic dominance, and its ability to enforce – impose – its interests on other states.

Impotence ‘at home’ leads to overcompensation abroad.

The implosion of the Pax Americana – the current international order – and America’s dysfunctional politics and moral decline, are two sides of the same coin.