As I explained in my research and on this blog, currently the (international) System is in the “high-connectivity regime” (HCR), of the first global KA/war-cycle (1945-…).
Typically during this stage of development, tensions in the System accumulate and drive the System into a critical state. A critical state is equivalent with a systemic response.
The research suggests – if the model that is applied is correct – that the System reaches a critical state in 2020 +/- two years.
When a critical state is reached, the System is highly susceptible for even small disturbances (incidents) that can cascade through the System. These cascades can be compared with a domino-effect.
The question now is, if the attacks on Saudi oil facilities could already trigger such a series of cascades.
See below figure for a possible scenario that could develop. Judge yourself how (un)likely this is.
