My research shows that during the period 1480-1945, the System (with Europe at its core) produced four systemic wars as part of four accelerating war-cycles. The fourth and last systemic […]
American and Saudi retaliation against Iran can cause a dramatic escalation
As I explained in my research and on this blog, currently the (international) System is in the “high-connectivity regime” (HCR), of the first global KA/war-cycle (1945-…). Typically during this stage […]
(De)colonization: How the Second Law imposed a process of equilib(e)ration
In this article, I discuss some (initial) thoughts on the process of colonization and decolonization. These processes can be better understood when the thermodynamics of the System – especially the […]
Two deficiencies undermine strategic thinking
Military operations – at various levels and involving a multitude of parties and interests – are now closely intertwined with political activity and processes. Military activity is now politicized. Two […]
US/Taliban peace negotiations were set up for failure: The US got tripped up by their own tactics
The US-peace negotiations with the Taliban have – not surprisingly – failed. Yesterday (September 9, 2019) president Trump declared these negotiations “Dead”. For various reasons, these negotiations failed. For one […]
This is how Radicalization works
In this article, I discuss radicalization. The degree of radicalization of a social system and its level/amount of entropy are closely related. As I explain in my research, all natural […]
Mass Shooting Cycles in American Society (1982-2019) and the Route to Chaos
Concept version: 050919 Ingo Piepers, GLOBAL4CAST, Amsterdam, The Netherlands E-mail: ingo@global4cast.org SUMMARY Preliminary findings based on research presented and discussed in this paper, show that during the period 1982-2019, American […]
Our thinking about war and strategy must change
Von Clausewitz is the author of the work “On War” (“Vom Kriege“), and until today dominates thinking about war and strategy-formulation. However, Von Clausewitz’s theory and strategic imperatives are based […]
A system always restores equilibrium (eventually)
A gradient can be understood as a “slope”. The gradient of a graph or series of measurements is the rate at which one set of amounts changes in relation to […]
Political and social volatility point to an imminent systemic respons
Often, we consider war, an exceptional condition, or “just” the result of a combination of “unlucky” circumstances. However, from a thermodynamic perspective kinetic activity (KA, better known as “war”) is […]
