I am frequently asked, what the potential impact of the Internet could be on war. To answer this question it is necessary to define “war” accurately: A distinction must be […]
Blog
The next Systemic War (2): The role of privileges
In a series of articles, I discuss several subjects related to a possible next systemic war, including: How systemic wars “work”, the function of privileges for Great Powers and the […]
Geopolitical consequences of the US whistle-blower revelations
In the end stage of a war-cycle, tensions accumulate, issues cannot be resolved, and instead reinforce each other. These dynamics drive the System into a critical state. Recent revelations in […]
The next Systemic War (1): How do systemic wars work?
In a series of articles, I discuss several subjects related to a next systemic war, including: How systemic wars “work”, the function of privileges for Great Powers and the System, […]
Our efforts to prevent and control war are as misguided as the research methods they are based on
Despite extensive analysis of war-data, regularities in war dynamics were not discovered, at an earlier stage. Why not; how could this happen: Why were regularities in war dynamics not discovered […]
Global Challenges: Disunited in Action
From the WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION: New York, 22 September 2019 – The world’s leading climate science organizations have joined forces to produce a landmark new report for the United Nations Climate Action Summit, underlining […]
The System is a network of events
The System, as I also argue in my research can also be considered a network of events. In case of the System, these events include kinetic activity (KA, war), issues, […]
The Robust yet Fragile Nature of the International System
Interdependent networks can be robust and fragile at the same time. This is also the case for the (international) System, at this stage of development. Robustness refers to the ability […]
Strategic considerations, in case of escalation: Russia has a strong position
Not only is the risk of escalation an important consideration in an (eventual) response from the United States and Saudi Arabia against Iran, but also how escalation could play out. […]
World Wars Not always Start with a “Big Bang”
My research shows that during the period 1480-1945, the System (with Europe at its core) produced four systemic wars as part of four accelerating war-cycles. The fourth and last systemic […]
