Interdependent networks can be robust and fragile at the same time. This is also the case for the (international) System, at this stage of development. Robustness refers to the ability […]
Blog
Strategic considerations, in case of escalation: Russia has a strong position
Not only is the risk of escalation an important consideration in an (eventual) response from the United States and Saudi Arabia against Iran, but also how escalation could play out. […]
World Wars Not always Start with a “Big Bang”
My research shows that during the period 1480-1945, the System (with Europe at its core) produced four systemic wars as part of four accelerating war-cycles. The fourth and last systemic […]
American and Saudi retaliation against Iran can cause a dramatic escalation
As I explained in my research and on this blog, currently the (international) System is in the “high-connectivity regime” (HCR), of the first global KA/war-cycle (1945-…). Typically during this stage […]
(De)colonization: How the Second Law imposed a process of equilib(e)ration
In this article, I discuss some (initial) thoughts on the process of colonization and decolonization. These processes can be better understood when the thermodynamics of the System – especially the […]
Two deficiencies undermine strategic thinking
Military operations – at various levels and involving a multitude of parties and interests – are now closely intertwined with political activity and processes. Military activity is now politicized. Two […]
US/Taliban peace negotiations were set up for failure: The US got tripped up by their own tactics
The US-peace negotiations with the Taliban have – not surprisingly – failed. Yesterday (September 9, 2019) president Trump declared these negotiations “Dead”. For various reasons, these negotiations failed. For one […]
This is how Radicalization works
In this article, I discuss radicalization. The degree of radicalization of a social system and its level/amount of entropy are closely related. As I explain in my research, all natural […]
Mass Shooting Cycles in American Society (1982-2019) and the Route to Chaos
Concept version: 050919 Ingo Piepers, GLOBAL4CAST, Amsterdam, The Netherlands E-mail: ingo@global4cast.org SUMMARY Preliminary findings based on research presented and discussed in this paper, show that during the period 1982-2019, American […]
Our thinking about war and strategy must change
Von Clausewitz is the author of the work “On War” (“Vom Kriege“), and until today dominates thinking about war and strategy-formulation. However, Von Clausewitz’s theory and strategic imperatives are based […]
