America’s miscalculations

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Source: The Washington Post.

When assessing security threats – like the escalating threats the United States and North-Korea are now exchanging – military and political analysts typically focus on two factors: the capabilities and intentions of the state that poses the threat. Does North-Korea have the capabilities to live up to its threats, and have the threats – explicit and implicit in the threats – any (political) credibility?

But a third factor – the stage of development of the international order – cannot be ignored, as I explain in this article.

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A simple network effect explains the typical war dynamics of the System

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The United States’ military activities in and around North Korea – especially involving its THAAD-system – contribute to the increasing sensitivity of the System for a systemic response. 

In this article I explain, how the System becomes increasingly vulnerable for a systemic response, and how a network effect contributes to this development.

My research shows that during the period 1495-1945, the System produced four accelerating war cycles, and is now producing a fifth war cycle; a first war cycle at a global scale of the System.

Each war cycle has a similar life-cycle: At a certain point during the relatively stable period of the cycle (which typically precedes a systemic war), the System reaches a tipping point, when a network effect starts hindering the release of tensions and the ability of the international order to solve issues. Instead of tensions being released and issues being solved, they accumulate in the System.

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Threat analysis: Assessment of systemic risk

issue, cluster analyse 4The System has reached the percolation condition: Issues are globally linked, and involve all Great Powers. It now is a matter of ‘charging’: More tensions.

In this article, I present a preview of a threat analysis of the System based on the insights of my research. The question I want to answer is, Is a systemic war now (‘technically’) possible?

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The increasing world disorder signals the need for an urgent ‘upgrade’ of the international order; but not Trump’s version

Today, in The Guardian an article is published with the title: “Trump, North Korea and shifting alliances: is this the new world disorder?“.

The answer to this question is a clear: ‘Yes, it is”.

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Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy only ensures him of the fastest downgrade to a secondary position: Interdependencies cannot be ignored without paying a price.

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