This is the first article in a new series. In the book “The New Rules of War, Victory in the Age of Durable Disorder” – or sometimes with the subtitle: […]
terrorism
Bombs meant to expose insecurities
Financial Times, 2 November 2010 Sir, In his Q&A column “Difficulty of detection is main worry” (FT, November 1) James Blitz writes that “US and British security chiefs say they […]
US/Taliban peace negotiations were set up for failure: The US got tripped up by their own tactics
The US-peace negotiations with the Taliban have – not surprisingly – failed. Yesterday (September 9, 2019) president Trump declared these negotiations “Dead”. For various reasons, these negotiations failed. For one […]
Mass Shooting Cycles in American Society (1982-2019) and the Route to Chaos
Concept version: 050919 Ingo Piepers, GLOBAL4CAST, Amsterdam, The Netherlands E-mail: ingo@global4cast.org SUMMARY Preliminary findings based on research presented and discussed in this paper, show that during the period 1982-2019, American […]
Near criticality: The worrying state of the international system
The (International) System is in a worrying state, as I explain in this article. My research shows that the System produces war-cycles, with remarkable regularity, and that each war-cycle has […]
False Assumptions: Strategy is obsolete on delivery
Source featured image: MISSILE DEFENSE PROJECT, “MISSILES OF RUSSIA,” MISSILE THREAT, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, JUNE 14, 2018. Typically, during high-connectivity regimes (HCR’s) of KA/war-cycles – when tensions […]
KA/war-cycles and the fundamental differences between non-systemic and systemic KA/wars
KA stands for “kinetic activity” of the System, and is equivalent with war. Analysis of war data shows that during the transient period (1480-1945), the System produced four accelerating KA/war-cycles, […]
Eco-terrorism is a matter of time
Eco-terrorism only seems a matter of time. There is always a tendency in systems – including in social systems – to “eradicate” – neutralize – gradients, including entropy-gradients. As discussed […]
Interacting self-fulfilling prophecies: Buildup of tensions
In case of the (State-)System, self-fulfilling prophecies of various ‘actors’ (e.g. societies and decisionmakers of states) – their mutual expectations – interact and shape each other; it is a process […]
Attack Tolerance of Networks
Networks differ in their attack and error tolerance. Scale-free networks have a typical ‘error and attack tolerance’ (1), which is related to the distribution of nodes with a certain degree […]
