The disruption and destruction caused by the corona virus pandemic, causes uncertainty and raises questions; also questions related to my research. A frequently asked question is, what the impact of […]
war-cycle
THIS IS A WAR CYCLE
This is a schematic representation of a war cycle. During the period 1480-1945, the European State-System produced four accelerating war cycles. Together they constitute a dissipative structure. This dissipative structure […]
Political and social volatility point to an imminent systemic respons
Often, we consider war, an exceptional condition, or “just” the result of a combination of “unlucky” circumstances. However, from a thermodynamic perspective kinetic activity (KA, better known as “war”) is […]
Near criticality: The worrying state of the international system
The (International) System is in a worrying state, as I explain in this article. My research shows that the System produces war-cycles, with remarkable regularity, and that each war-cycle has […]
DISSIPATIVE STRUCTURES EXPLAINED: PART 2, PATTERNS IN WAR DYNAMICS
In this series of five posts, I explain the workings and implications of dissipative structures that regulate kinetic activity (wars) in our System. The series consists of five parts and […]
False Assumptions: Strategy is obsolete on delivery
Source featured image: MISSILE DEFENSE PROJECT, “MISSILES OF RUSSIA,” MISSILE THREAT, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, JUNE 14, 2018. Typically, during high-connectivity regimes (HCR’s) of KA/war-cycles – when tensions […]
KA/war-cycles and the fundamental differences between non-systemic and systemic KA/wars
KA stands for “kinetic activity” of the System, and is equivalent with war. Analysis of war data shows that during the transient period (1480-1945), the System produced four accelerating KA/war-cycles, […]
Interacting self-fulfilling prophecies: Buildup of tensions
In case of the (State-)System, self-fulfilling prophecies of various ‘actors’ (e.g. societies and decisionmakers of states) – their mutual expectations – interact and shape each other; it is a process […]
